Expected Revisions to Nonfarm Payroll Jobs Based on Corrected Third Quarter 2022 QCEW Data
| Important note: Due to a system modernization that coincided with the processing of third quarter 2022 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wage (QCEW) data, the Office of Labor Market Information discovered an undercount of employment that impacted nonfarm payroll job estimates for 2022 benchmark processing. This release provides information on expected revisions to nonfarm payroll job estimates from July 2022 through February 2023, with corrected underlying third quarter 2022 QCEW data. The estimates provided in this release are not official estimates. However, the data provided in this release are expected revisions to nonfarm payroll job estimates once corrected underlying QCEW data are incorporated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics during 2023 benchmarking. These official estimates will be released in March 2024. Any questions will be addressed during the Employment Situation press call on Friday, April 21st, 2023. |
Corrected third quarter 2022 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) results indicate Colorado total nonfarm payroll job estimates will be revised up for this period with the release of benchmarked estimates in March 2024. July 2022 estimates are expected to be revised down slightly by about 600 nonfarm payroll jobs. August and September 2022 estimates are expected to be revised up by about 8,300 and 17,400 nonfarm payroll jobs, respectively.
Applying these results through February 2023 brings estimated total nonfarm payroll jobs in February to 2,905,100. This change brings over the year payroll job growth estimates through February 2023 to 61,200 or 2.2 percent, as opposed to the currently published over the year change of 46,700 and growth rate of 1.6 percent.
The final March 2024 benchmarked series are expected to vary from these estimates due to new seasonal adjustment factors and new estimates of nonfarm payroll jobs not covered by the unemployment insurance program.
Industry sectors that were most impacted and are expected to undergo an upward revision to payroll job estimates in the 3rd quarter1 include government (~8,200), trade, transportation, and utilities (~3,100), financial activities (~3,000), information (~1,800), and education and health services (~1,700). Payroll job estimates for mining and logging and other services may also be revised up.
With the incorporation of corrected third quarter 2022 QCEW data, the industry sector expected to undergo a downward revision to payroll job estimates in the 3rd quarter1 is manufacturing (~1,700). Payroll job estimates for professional and business services, construction, and leisure and hospitality may also be revised down.
Corrected 3rd quarter data indicate that total nonfarm payroll job estimates for the Denver (~10,900) Metropolitan Statistical Area is expected be revised up in the 3rd quarter1.
Payroll job estimates for the Colorado Springs, Boulder, Fort Collins, Greeley, Grand Junction, and Pueblo Metropolitan Statistical Area may be revised down in the 3rd quarter.
1 Values shown are September estimates.
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Expected Revisions to Colorado Nonfarm Payroll Jobs will resume as scheduled with estimates based on 4th quarter 2022 QCEW data released Wednesday, May 24, 2023. This release and future releases will incorporate the corrected underlying third quarter 2022 QCEW data.
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Every month of the year other than February the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, releases estimates of Colorado nonfarm payroll jobs for the previous month based on results from a survey of business establishments. Estimates for Colorado are produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for total nonfarm payroll jobs and specific industry sectors or groups of sectors across the entire state, and for the seven metropolitan statistical areas.
In February of each year these survey based estimates are compared to and adjusted in a process called “benchmarking” based on administrative records available since the release of the survey estimates. The results of that comparison are released in March.
For instance, at the beginning of the 2024 calendar year Colorado nonfarm payroll job estimates for the second half of 2022 and all of 2023 will be benchmarked based on information available from the QCEW program for the 3rd quarter of 2022 (corrected data), 4th quarter of 2022, and the first three quarters of 2023. These updated estimates will be released in March 2024.
The source of these administrative records for the QCEW program are unemployment insurance reports Colorado employers are required to file quarterly with the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment. Among other information, employers include the number of people employed at the firm for each month of the quarter for which the report is being filed. Although only firms with employees covered by the Colorado Unemployment Insurance program are required by state and federal law to submit these reports, this quarterly census of employment covers about 98 percent of all nonfarm payroll jobs and about 88 percent of total employment in Colorado.
Aggregated by industry, the QCEW data are more closely aligned with the definition of nonfarm payroll jobs than with total employment. This is because an individual holding more than one job is counted only once in the total employment estimate but multiple times in both QCEW and the nonfarm payroll job estimates. Total employment estimates are by place of residence while both QCEW and payroll jobs are by place of business.
Though the official nonfarm payroll job estimates are benchmarked only once a year, data from QCEW are available quarterly and, once available, can be compared to the official series to see by about how much the official statistics will be adjusted.
Resources Mentioned
Expected Revisions to Nonfarm Payroll Jobs Based on Corrected Third Quarter 2022 QCEW Data